Thursday, November 22, 2007

US religious right faces 2008 dilemma

US religious right faces 2008 dilemma
By Laura Smith-Spark
BBC News, Washington

With only 75 days to go before elections to choose each party's presidential candidate begin, America's religious conservatives face an intractable dilemma.

Rudy Giuliani
Many social conservatives find Rudy Giuliani hard to support

Do they back the candidate they trust to promote the social values they hold dear - or the one who stands the best chance of beating the Democrats to the White House in 2008?

The Republican candidate currently leading national polls is former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

But his support for gay and abortion rights, not to mention his three marriages, make him an unpalatable option for many social conservatives who would usually vote Republican.

"Giuliani still hasn't convinced folks that he is tolerable," said Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission and author of The Divided States of America.

"Once a social conservative becomes competitive in the polls, or comes within striking distance of being competitive in the polls, you are going to see Republican primary voters dropping off Rudy Giuliani like fleas off a dead dog."

'Unsettled' voters

The former New York mayor will doubtless try to change that view when he speaks at this weekend's Values Voter Summit that has brought all the Republican contenders to Washington.

A war is raging for the soul of America
Tony Perkins
Family Research Council

Organised by the Family Research Council (FRC), a conservative organisation promoting Judeo-Christian values and the family, its aim is to galvanise social issues voters.

"A war is raging for the soul of America," FRC president Tony Perkins said. "What you or I do today will determine the future for generations yet to be born."

In the last two presidential elections, the evangelical Christian vote, motivated by issues such as abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research, was widely credited with helping George W Bush to victory.

Some 37% of all Republican and Republican-leaning voters are evangelical Protestants, the non-partisan Pew Research Center has found, and 43% say social issues will be "very important'' in deciding their vote in 2008.

But unless religious conservatives find a successor to Mr Bush behind whom they can unite, their power to influence this White House race remains uncertain.

Mr Land, one of the summit's speakers, told the BBC he saw conservatives as "unsettled and trying to make up their minds; listening to lots of marriage proposals and trying to decide which one to accept".

Wooing the right

Former Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson, criticised for lacklustre campaigning since announcing his candidacy in September, may have made some ground with Friday's wooing.

Fred Thompson with wife Jeri and daughter Hayden
Fred Thompson spoke of his faith, and opposition to abortion

Entering the stage accompanied by second wife Jeri and three-year-old daughter Hayden, he cited his "100% pro-life voting record" in the Senate.

He also recounted how his opposition to abortion had become "of the heart" after seeing a sonogram of Hayden in the womb.

Mr Thompson went on to say he did not know what he would do in his first 100 days in office.

"But," he said, "I know what I would do the first hour: go into the Oval Office, close the door, and pray for the wisdom to do what was right."

The audience loved it, giving their loudest cheer of the morning.

Meanwhile, Arizona Senator John McCain also stressed his opposition to abortion and urged voters to trust him on conservative values. "I hope you know I'm not going to con you," he said.

'Electability'

Mr Thompson's performance was enough to win the backing of Brian Pikkaart, an IT worker from Virginia, who voted for the former Law & Order actor in the summit's straw poll.

Brian Pikkaart, summit attendee
Voter Brian Pikkaart backed Fred Thompson in the summit straw poll

"There's still a long time to go in the primaries, so things can change," he said.

"But at this point, it's a combination of knowing [Mr Thompson's] faith, his conservative beliefs across a spectrum of issues, and what I feel is his electability."

First-time Oklahoma voter Elise Hall, an intern with TeenPact, a non-profit Christian group working with teenagers, also praised Mr Thompson's family values.

Pastor Eric Yarbough, from Maryland, said he had felt a connection with Mr Thompson and Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, but wanted to hear the other candidates before deciding his allegiance.

Recent retiree Norman Elser, from Ohio, agreed: "A setting like this, where they are all here, gives you a time to hear the different ideas and make your judgements and see how you want the election to go.

"I've narrowed it down to one or two but I haven't made my final decision yet."

'Not bluffing'

Ultimately, the religious right may have to choose between principle and pragmatism.

Richard Land, South Baptist Convention
Richard Land warns evangelicals may back a third-party candidate

Last month a group of influential conservatives, including the founder of Focus on the Family, James Dobson, warned they would be forced to back a third-party candidate if Mr Giuliani won the Republican nomination.

Mr Land is convinced that the evangelical leadership will live up to that threat - even if it means splitting the Republican vote and losing the White House to, say, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

"Evangelicals have made it clear that they are not going to allow the Republican party to take for granted and exploit evangelicals the way the Democratic party has far too often exploited and taken for granted the African-Americans," he said.

"They are not bluffing."

However, Jean Schmidt, Republican representative for Ohio, urged voters to unite even "if it means having a candidate that we are a little bit uncomfortable with but who is less likely to compromise the values we hold...

"When we get through the primaries, stand behind the individual who is at least the better alternative than we will get from the other side."

Quick guide: US presidential elections

Quick guide: US presidential elections

The road to the White House is long, complicated and expensive. BBC News explains the process.

The early stages

A politician with presidential ambition usually forms an exploratory committee to test the waters and raise money, sometimes up to two years before the election. They then formally declare their candidacy and campaign in key states.

The primaries

The primary season begins in the January before the election and lasts until about June. This is where candidates fight within the two main parties, Republican and Democratic, for their party's nomination.

WHAT IS A QUICK GUIDE?
Quick guides are concise explanations of topics or issues in the news.

Voters in each of the 50 states select party delegates, who in most cases have pledged to support a particular candidate. Some states use a caucus - a local meeting system - rather than primaries.

The party convention

The national party conventions, held a few months before the election, are where the candidates are formally nominated.

Delegates at the Republican convention, 2004
National party conventions are great set piece events

Delegates who have been chosen during the state primaries pick the nominee, though by this stage, the party normally knows who has won.

The winning candidate then picks a running-mate, sometimes from among the defeated rivals.

The final lap

Only now do the candidates fully square up against each other. There is massive spending on advertising, and a major flurry of state-by-state campaigning. Much attention is paid to the televised debates between the candidates. This can, but does not necessarily involve any independent candidate.

In the final weeks, the contenders typically concentrate their attention on big so-called "swing states", where the outcome is uncertain.

The election

American presidential elections are always held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

WANT TO KNOW MORE?
Have we missed anything out? Do you want to suggest a subject for a Quick Guide?

Voters do not, technically, participate in a direct election of the president. They choose "electors", who are pledged to one or another candidate. This is known as the Electoral College.

Each state has a certain number of electors to the college, based on the size of its population.

In almost every state, the winner of the popular vote gets all the electoral college votes in that state. Because of this system, a candidate can take the White House without winning the popular vote, such as in the 2000 contest between George W Bush and Al Gore.

2008 election: Key Social issues

2008 election: Key issues
As candidates prepare for the 2008 US presidential elections, certain issues are bound to dominate campaigning.

Here we outline the positions of those thought to be the main contenders for the Democratic and Republican parties on each of the key issues.

For the Democrats we look at New York Senator Hillary Clinton, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

For the Republicans we consider former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Senator John McCain, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson.

SOCIAL ISSUES

Hillary Clinton: On abortion, she has supported a woman's right to choose as a fundamental constitutional right. She has also talked about the role of faith, values and education in preventing unwanted pregnancies in the first place. Her record shows she backs "sensible gun control legislation" and has been a firm supporter of stem cell research.

John Edwards: Has said he "could not disagree more strongly" with the April 2007 Supreme Court decision to uphold a ban on late-term partial birth abortion. In the Democratic debate the same month, he said he understood it was a difficult issue for America. He favours expanding federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

Barack Obama: Speaking at the April 2007 Democratic debate, Mr Obama said he trusted women to make their own choices on abortion "in conjunction with their doctors and their families and their clergy". He has said he believes marriage is between a man and a woman but has supported civil unions for gay couples.

Rudy Giuliani: Has said he believes in a woman's right of choice but that he personally hates abortion. He has stressed that while mayor of New York, adoptions went up by 65-70% while abortions dropped 16%. He agrees with the Supreme Court decision to uphold a ban on partial birth abortion. On gay marriage, he says he supports the legal rights afforded by domestic partnerships but believes marriage is between a man and a woman.

John McCain: At the presidential debate in South Carolina, Mr McCain said he believed Roe v Wade - the landmark 1973 Supreme Court ruling that established governments lacked the power to prohibit abortions - should be overturned. He had previously said it should not be repealed because it would force women to seek backstreet abortions. He supports the Supreme Court ruling on partial birth abortion.

Mitt Romney: Supported abortion rights while governor of Massachusetts but says he has changed his mind. He has said he was always personally opposed to abortion but was motivated to change his stance on the government's role in the issue after studying medical developments like cloning. He backs the Supreme Court decision on partial abortion.

Fred Thompson: Describes himself as "pro-life" and has said the landmark Roe v Wade case was "was bad law and bad medical science". He has said he supports adult, but not embryonic, stem cell research. He is opposed to gay marriage and does not like civil unions, but thinks individual states should be left to decide on laws on the latter. He supports the death penalty.

Presidential primary, caucus and party convention dates

Presidential primary, caucus and party convention dates
Map showing when each US state is holding its primary and caucus elections

*States in bold hold Democratic or Republican primaries on separate dates. Earliest dates represented here.
Kansas' Legislature voted not to hold a presidential primary in 2008.
Some dates may change, in particular New Hampshire.
Michigan date pending governor's confirmation.

Caucus: Private meeting of party members to select a candidate or delegates for a state or national nominating convention.
Primary: A state level election to nominate a party's candidate for office.

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY AND CAUCUS DATES

2008 Multi-party primaries Dem Rep 2004 Multi-party primaries Dem Rep
January
3 Iowa
5 Wyoming
14 19 Iowa caucuses
15 Michigan
19 Nevada caucuses South Carolina 27 New Hampshire
22 New Hampshire
29 Florida South Carolina
February
2 Maine caucus 3 Missouri North Dakota Oklahoma Arizona Delaware New Mexico caucus South Carolina
5 Alabama Alaska caucuses, Arizona Arkansas California Idaho caucus 7 Michigan caucus Washington caucus
Colorado caucuses, Connecticut Delaware Georgia New Mexico caucus 8 Maine caucus
Illinois 10 Tennessee Virginia
Minnesota caucuses, Missouri 14 Nevada caucus
New Jersey New York 17 Wisconsin
North Dakota caucuses 24 Hawaii caucus Idaho caucus Utah caucus
Oklahoma Tennessee Utah
9 Louisiana Washington caucuses Nebraska caucus
10 Maine caucus
12 Maryland Virginia
19 Washington Wisconsin
26 Hawaii caucus
March
2 Hawaii caucus 2 California Connecticut Georgia
4 Massachusetts Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas Vermont Ohio Maryland Massachusetts
8 Wyoming caucus Minnesota caucus, New York
11 Mississippi Rhode Island Vermont
9 Florida Louisiana Mississippi Texas Washington caucus
13 Kansas caucus
16 Illinois
20 Alaska caucus Wyoming caucus
27 South Carolina caucus
April
22 Pennsylvania (considering 12 Feb, 4 March) 13 Colorado
17 North Carolina caucus
24 Kansas caucus
27 Pennsylvania
29 Nevada caucus
May
6 Indiana North Carolina 4 Indiana North Carolina
13 Nebraska West Virginia 8 Arizona caucus, Utah caucus
20 Kentucky Oregon Wyoming Caucus
27 Idaho 11 Nebraska West Virginia
14 Delaware caucus
15 Maine caucus
18 Arkansas Kentucky Oregon
21 Alaska caucus, Michigan caucus
North Carolina caucus
25 Idaho
June
3 Montana New Mexico South Dakota 1 Alabama, New Mexico South Dakota
4 Hawaii caucus
5 Virginia caucus
8 Montana New Jersey
Democratic National Convention
25 - 28 Aug Denver, Colorado 26 - 29 July Boston, Massachusetts
Republican National Convention
1-4 Sep Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota 30 Aug- 2 Sep New York