Thursday, November 22, 2007

2008 election: Main contenders

2008 election: Main contenders
In US politics, there is usually an incumbent running for the White House - if not the president himself (and so far it has always been a "himself"), then his vice-president.

George W Bush with his wife Laura
George W Bush will leave the White House after the two-term limit
But with George W Bush constitutionally limited to two terms and VP Dick Cheney opting not to run, the race is wide open for the first time since 1928.

Election Day - 4 November 2008 - may feel to outsiders like it is a long way off, but the primary elections, in which each party chooses its nominee, are fast approaching.

With experts predicting it will be the first $1bn election, the candidates - in what is an unusually crowded field - are focused on raising money and winning support in key states.

Here are the people presently considered the most capable of making a serious run:

DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS

HILLARY CLINTON

Who is she? The first former First Lady to go on to hold elected office, she is now serving as senator for New York. Declared her intention to stand with a video saying "I'm in to win" on her website on 20 January 2007 - two years to the day before the next president is inaugurated.

Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton: Leader of the pack
Why take her seriously? Unbeatable name recognition and serious fundraising ability make Hillary - no surname necessary - a clear front-runner for the Democrats. She has tried to stake out a position as a centrist in her six years in the Senate. She reported $26m in fundraising from the first quarter of 2007 (plus $10m from her 2006 Senate campaign fund) and netted a further $54m in the next two quarters. She continues to dominate national and most state polls.

What is going to stand in her way? If Bill Clinton remains a divisive figure in American politics, that goes at least double for Hillary - some estimates say one in three Americans would never vote for her. And the US has never yet elected a woman president. Her fundraising efforts have not been enough to shake off close rivals, notably Barack Obama.

Did you know? Is there anything we do not already know about Hillary Clinton?

CHRIS DODD

Who is he? Senior senator from the north-eastern state of Connecticut. He declared in January 2007 he was running for president.

Senator Chris Dodd at a Jan 2007 campaign event
Chris Dodd: Iraq apology
Why take him seriously? Senator Dodd is chairman of the Senate banking committee, which could prove valuable when it comes to fundraising. He is well liked in the party, and has come out as a clear opponent of the Iraq war, apologising for his 2002 vote in favour of it.

What is going to stand in his way? Chris Dodd has been drawing much smaller crowds than his rivals in key early-primary states such as Iowa - and after the defeat of John Kerry in 2004, the Democratic party may be very reluctant to nominate another senator from a small, liberal New England state.

Did you know? Mr Dodd, 62, has two young children, prompting him to joke that he is the only candidate on mailing lists both for pensioners and nappy buyers.

JOHN EDWARDS

Who is he? Former lawyer and one-term North Carolina senator who ran for vice-president with John Kerry in 2004. He now runs an anti-poverty centre, and declared his White House ambition at the end of 2006.

John Edwards
John Edwards: Southern charmer
Why take him seriously? Supporters and detractors alike agree that Mr Edwards is an excellent speaker, a man the Washington Post's politics blogger Chris Cillizza dubbed "the most naturally talented politician in the field". He has been campaigning hard on an anti-poverty platform and has won the backing of several labour organisations.

What is going to stand in his way? Audiences - even sympathetic ones - tend to find Mr Edwards too slick. His poor-boy-made-good routine can also come across as patronising. The news that wife Elizabeth's cancer had returned prompted a media row over whether he should still be running. She has in fact become a forceful voice in his campaign. He reported raising $14m in the first quarter of 2007, $9m in the second and $7.2m in the third - some way short of his chief Democratic rivals. He has opted to accept public funding, which puts a cap on campaign spending.

Did you know? Mr Edwards helped to depose key witnesses during the Senate's impeachment trial of Bill Clinton in 1999.

BARACK OBAMA

Who is he? Mixed-race junior senator from Illinois who shot to prominence at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. He began his official campaign on 10 February 2007 with a call for the Iraq war to end, saying US troops must withdraw by March 2008.

Illinois Sen Barack Obama
Barack Obama: "Hot" phenomenon
Why take him seriously? Time magazine dubbed Senator Obama "America's hottest political phenomenon", while television's own phenomenon, Oprah Winfrey, urged him to announce his candidacy on her show. He impressed observers by raising $25m in funds in the first quarter of 2007 - only $1m short of Hillary Clinton's total - and overtook her in the second quarter with a record $32.8m. With three months to go before the primary season, he had $32m to spend on campaigning, compared with her $35m.

What is going to stand in his way? Barack Obama will have served only four years in the Senate when the 2008 election rolls around - even less than John F Kennedy did before he was elected in 1960. And while his supporters praise him as thoughtful, deliberative and liberal, some experts doubt those are the characteristics that get a politician to the White House. Some polls have shown Mrs Clinton extending her lead over him.

Did you know? Barack Obama's mother was from Kansas and his father was from Kenya - leading observers to suggest he is an African and an American, but not an African-American.

BILL RICHARDSON

Who is he? Governor of the south-western state of New Mexico who was US ambassador to the United Nations under Bill Clinton before becoming his secretary of energy.

New Mexico Gov Bill Richardson
Bill Richardson: Impressive resume
Why take him seriously? Gov Richardson hopes his CV will make him the ideal candidate in an age when voters are concerned about high gas prices and possible conflicts with Iran and North Korea. His Latino heritage may also win him votes with the country's largest minority population - one for which both Republicans and Democrats need to compete.

What is going to stand in his way? Gov Richardson is reportedly larger than life in small groups, easily able to connect with many different types of people - but in front of crowds he does not always demonstrate much charisma. His non-Hispanic sounding name has left many Latino voters unaware of his background. And the small, out-of-the-way state of New Mexico is not a natural launching pad for a national campaign.

Did you know? Gov Richardson has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize four times.


RUDOLPH GIULIANI

Who is he? Former mayor of New York City who shot to international prominence for his firm leadership on 11 September 2001. He set up a committee to explore a White House bid shortly after the mid-terms in Nov 2006.

Rudolph Giuliani
Rudolph Giuliani: "America's mayor"
Why take him seriously? Mr Giuliani emerged as a hero of 9/11, prompting Time magazine to name him Man of the Year for 2001. Even before then, he was credited with bringing down New York's crime rate - and since leaving office he has been an active fundraiser and campaigner for other Republican candidates, keeping his stock high. He consistently leads national polls of likely Republican voters. He pulled in $15m in the first quarter of 2007, despite making a late start on fundraising, and $17.5m in the second.

What is going to stand in his way? "America's mayor" may be a law-and-order conservative, but his positions on gay rights, abortion and gun control are comparatively liberal, which does not endear him to the party's right wing. He has tried to make allies among the Christian right, but has not reversed his stance on the issues. The nation's largest firefighters' union has attacked him over his leadership before and after 9/11.

Did you know? Mr Giuliani was preparing to run against Hillary Clinton for a Senate seat in 2000 when he was diagnosed with prostate cancer and quit the race.

MIKE HUCKABEE

Who is he? Governor of Arkansas from 1996 to 2006, best known nationally for his dramatic weight loss in response to a diagnosis of diabetes. Also named to Time magazine's 2006 list of the nation's best governors.

Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee: Dramatic change
Why take him seriously? Gov Huckabee has carved out a place for himself as a health advocate following his own turnaround from fat to fit. As an ordained Baptist minister who says his faith is inseparable from his politics, he may be a magnet for conservative Christian votes - especially if competing against a social liberal such as Rudolph Giuliani. He came second in the non-binding Iowa straw poll and an October straw poll of "values voters", as well as making ground in national polls.

What is going to stand in his way? His Evangelical faith has led him to take positions that do not appeal to all Republicans, such as an increase in the state's minimum wage - which drew fire from fiscal conservatives. He is also lagging far behind better-known names when it comes to fundraising.

Did you know? Gov Huckabee plays bass guitar in a band called Capitol Offense.

JOHN McCAIN

Who is he? Maverick senator from Arizona who ran against George W Bush for the Republican nomination in 2000 and has had complex relations with the president ever since. In Nov 2006, he took the first step towards declaring his intention to run in 2008, and officially launched his candidacy in April 2007.

John McCain
John McCain: Straight talker
Why take him seriously? John McCain is one of the highest-profile figures in Washington, known for sponsoring key measures against torture and in favour of campaign finance reform. He continues to command respect despite falling behind the front-runners in many polls.

What is going to stand in his way? Although Sen McCain says unequivocally that he is a social conservative, his frequent skirmishes with the Bush administration have made him more popular with liberals than with conservatives. He has also doggedly backed America's keeping troops in Iraq, an increasingly unpopular position. He overhauled his fundraising operation after a disappointing first quarter of 2007 but this was not enough to turn the tide, prompting a major shake-up of his operation over the summer.

Did you know? Shot down as a Navy pilot over Vietnam in 1967, Mr McCain refused to be released ahead of other prisoners of war - earning himself five years of captivity, two in solitary confinement.

MITT ROMNEY

Who is he? Republican governor of Massachusetts from 2002 to 2006 who made headlines for a state law making health insurance mandatory. He declared his White House intentions in February 2007, saying America needed "innovation and transformation" from outside of Washington.

Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney: Olympics saviour
Why take him seriously? Gov Romney may have cracked one of the most intractable issues facing America - the millions of people with no health insurance in a country that does not have a national health system. He won acclaim for taking over the organisation of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics when planning looked on the verge of collapse, delivering a successful and profitable event. He reported an impressive $23m in fundraising for the first three months of 2007 but slipped back a little in the second and third quarters. After pouring significant effort into Iowa, he won its non-binding straw poll. (His chief rivals skipped it.) He has been polling well in key states, though trailing Mr Giuliani in national polls.

What is going to stand in his way? It is not clear that Gov Romney's health-insurance model can be applied nationally, as Massachusetts is a small and wealthy state. Some voters may be put off by the fact that he is a Mormon - a religion that some consider outside the mainstream. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll in July 2006 found that just over one in three Americans say they would not vote for a Mormon for president.

Did you know? Gov Romney's father, former Michigan Governor George Romney, ran for president in 1968, but failed to secure his party's nomination.

FRED THOMPSON

Who is he? Former two-term senator for Tennessee who left politics in 2002 to return to acting, but has now announced a White House run.

Fred Thompson
Fred Thompson: Actor's charm
Why take him seriously? Mr Thompson is well known to many voters through his role as district attorney Arthur Branch in TV crime series Law & Order. Unlike some of his rivals, he has good conservative credentials on such issues as abortion and gun rights. Polls consistently put him among the front-runners - and analysts predict his down-to-earth charm may help him pick up support from voters uninspired by the other choices.

What is going to stand in his way? Mr Thompson is later than most in entering the race, putting him at a big disadvantage when it comes to fundraising. The long delay in his official declaration prompted speculation he may have missed his window of opportunity. He will have to overcome a perception in some circles that he is not 100% committed to politics - or hard work. His public speaking has not been as sparkling as some supporters had hoped.

Did you know? Mr Thompson has played both himself and a US president. His turn in the top job came with a cameo in the 2007 film Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee, as President Ulysses S Grant. He played himself as a senator in the movie Looking for Comedy in the Muslim World.

OTHER OFFICIAL CANDIDATES
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Democrat
Senator from Delaware


Mike Gravel
Mike Gravel
Democrat
Former senator from Alaska

Dennis Kucinich
Dennis Kucinich
Democrat
Representative from Ohio

Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter
Republican
Representative from California

Ron Paul
Ron Paul
Republican
Representative from Texas

Tom Tancredo

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